What the return of volatility tells us
The past week has seen quite large price movements in asset markets even though, overall, equities are relatively stable. The UK’s main market index, the UK Large-Cap index, is higher and among the better index performers globally. It came very close to closing above 8000 last Friday, but just missed out (our table at the end shows the level at 2:30pm). However, bond yields are higher here and especially in the US (which means bond prices have gone down), which usually drags down equities. What stood out last week is that the reverse is true in Europe: equities are lower, but government bond prices are higher.
Is Gold now an alternative currency?
Since the beginning of March, gold prices have been roaring higher, gaining about 17.5% in US dollar terms. This makes the precious metal one of the best performing assets of 2024 so far. At the time of writing, it is trading at an all-time high of $2,414 per ounce. The media has pointed to upcoming interest rate cuts from global central banks – most importantly the US Federal Reserve (Fed) – as well as rising tensions in the Middle East as reasons for the latest leg up. Gold is considered a safe haven asset or alternative to cash, so it tends to see more buyers when perceived risks are high or inflation threatens to diminish the value of currencies.