Atmospheric improvements It is quite incredible how much market sentiment can swing at the moment on the back of ‘atmospheric’ changes in the political debate. Only last week, we wrote how the political news-flow did not contribute positively to the short term outlook...

Stall speed economy fears spreading Once again, politics took our breath away during this first week of October. Donald Trump appeared to live-stream ever more evidence for his own impeachment, while the UK’s Boris Johnson ricocheted in his Brexit language between...

Ominous US-Dollar strength The unprecedented events unfolding in UK politics this week will have distracted many UK investors from developments in the wider world. But those global developments may well carry far greater significance for near-term return developments...

Diverging economic trends – catalyst for trade war resolution? We know from conversations with some of our portfolio investors and financial advisers that the investing UK public is currently almost entirely focused on every twist and turn of the Brexit...

Market sentiment rebound Last week, we wrote that equity markets would need to see an improvement in global economic growth if they were to move higher. So, it was typical commentator’s curse that this week saw a rise in equities all over the world, despite no clear...

Choppy water but no storm, yet The week has, yet again, felt tumultuous. The government’s Brexit strategy has been halted in its tracks by a miscalculation of the official opposition and internal Conservative Party opposition. Many commentators were also confounded,...

Fattening ‘tails’ It does not happen often that market-moving news emerges after we have finished writing The Cambridge Weekly. Last week proved to be an exception. Having just commented on how politics and the prospect of fiscal easing by US and European governments...

Populism politics reversing austerity? Following last week’s excitement over the yield curve inversions in the US and UK – which have been powerful recession predictors in the past – this week saw the return of calmer capital markets. World stock markets have...

Market spat between bond and equity markets Last week, we suggested that the recent market pullback (down, then up to almost recovered) is unlikely to be the end of this bout of market volatility. Sure enough, markets became even more volatile over this week, despite...

Bond markets unnerve equity markets – again We have repeatedly commented on these pages that the good mood in asset markets this year is more to do with central bank policy than a positive backdrop of the real economy. With poor economic fundamentals, central banks...

The Elephant and the Little Old Lady: A tale of two Central Banks It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Dickens’ immortal line roughly sums up the differing actions of two of the world’s major central banks this week. In the US, the Federal Reserve...

The quick and the not-so-quick It’s official: May is out and Boris is in. But despite the political changes this could bring, currency markets hardly reacted. £-sterling started the month at €1=£0.897, and remains at that level at the time of writing. It has weakened...

…‘twere well it were done quickly It has been another reasonable week for risk assets, especially equities. At the time of writing, markets around the world are within a percentage point of last week’s highs. In the US, large cap stocks are floating just off the...

Positioning for a summer of wait and see Cambridge’s investment team held its in-depth investment committee meeting last week, where we reflect on how the economy and capital markets have developed relative to our expectations from previous meetings and what may have...

Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs – for how long? The highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Osaka came and went - with somewhat of a damp squib outcome compared to some...

The tortoise cracks the egg – what’s real diversification? ‘Don’t put all your eggs in one basket’ is a phrase we hear time and time again. Although useful in explaining the concept to clients, it’s not really helpful in explaining why we seek to diversify and how it...

Battle of the ‘doves’ There were relatively few economic data or corporate announcements this week. The US came within a hair’s breadth of clearly carrying out an act of war against Iran. And the global stocks rose 2.25% during this week, with the US S&P500 index...

Mixed messages After a good start, June has carried on in a positive way for investors. Over the past week stock markets consolidated their gains, while bond yields stopped falling. Following the rapid deterioration of US manufacturing data, a number of positive data...

The return of the central bank put? Stock markets rallied on the hope that central banks' reassuring comments will lead to monetary stimulus once again Are Woodford's woes the death knell for active management? With deep knowledge of his investment approach we go...

Bond rally musings It all seemed to make a lot of sense to the media commentators this past week: government bonds rallied and equity markets fell because investors no longer expect a return of meaningful global economic growth during 2019, and in the UK the...