It is getting warmer Unfortunately this headline is not intended to suggest that things are getting better, but rather that Donald Trump’s trade war is heating up. In a way I feel reminded of the Cold War between the US and the USSR in my youth, when the odd skirmish...

Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity? A little over one week into the escalation of the US-China trade wars, stock markets have calmed and even made a partial recovery from last week’s sell-off. Globally, stock markets are now trading around 3.5% below...

Geopolitics re-enter market stage Just as markets were trying to prove that they have regained some rational balance when they shrugged off central banks’ rejection of further monetary support, geopolitical tensions returned with vengeance. Perhaps it was naïve of the...

Central banks disappoint expectations Last week we wrote that stock markets faced being challenged by the decline of a number of stimulating aspects that had been regularly named as the drivers of the 2019 recovery. The most crucial one being central banks’ assurances...

Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice A pleasant Easter break has been followed by new highs for US equity indices. And yet, it has been a less comfortable week for professional investors. The tailwinds blowing the 2019 stock market bounce-back are waning....

Spring time from here? It is quite incredible how much investor sentiment has changed over the past 4 months. At Christmas, equity markets had suffered a decline from their September highs, which had many market commentators suggesting that the end of this prolonged...

Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving Even though our prediction that Brexit would neither happen on 29 March nor 12 April has turned into reality, there seems little point in celebrating. Yes, the immediate threat of a cycle-ending shock event to the...

Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market  Frustrating political divisions have drowned out the 10th anniversary of what many have called the most unloved equity bull market in history. Broad based equity market investors (those who held their nerve) have enjoyed...

29 March 2019 – quarter end The vexed date has come and gone, as we had suggested, but not quite in the manner we had expected. While the population widely blames Parliament and the political class in general for the Brexit execution debacle, MPs are just as divided...

Brinkmanship and extensions Every few months, I spend a few days of the week travelling across the UK with Cambridge’s relationship management team updating regional gatherings of financial advisers. This time around, it was not surprising to find most of the...

Bits & pieces The febrile state of UK politics and its journalists might get you thinking that the UK markets were expiring as fast as the Brexit deadline. Certainly, there’s been a bit of to-ing and fro-ing in the currency market although the moves were miniscule...

ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed Last week, we wrote about the impressive 25% market recovery the Chinese stock market had witnessed since the beginning of the year. This week, the Chinese leadership demonstrated that it dislikes stock market exuberance...

£-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay The last week of February was void of significant economic or monetary market drivers, which left global investors to observe the political news-flow. The US President and UK’s Theresa May were therefore quickly...

Progress? We prognosticated in January that we thought it likely that the impossible US President Trump would reach a trade deal with China before the hapless UK prime minister would achieve a constructive divorce settlement with the EU. This week both issues appeared...

Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes As the market recovery resumes, Trump and Brexit will determine its longevity Corporate earnings: Sunny first, potential for drizzle later Corporate earnings growth is underpinning the ongoing recovery, but can it...