US slows, Europe’s winter outlook improves, UK back to start The most turbulent October experienced by UK bond markets since 2008 is drawing to an end and one could easily get the impression nothing of significance happened. Sterling is back to where it traded just...



The world beyond the UK Given the volatility in UK politics last week, broader capital markets felt like a sea of calm in comparison. As far as the outcomes from the political side are concerned, markets had already priced in the upside on sterling, based on the...

Change in the air It is not often that market action in the UK capital market moves the global capital market dial, given our domestic stock market comprises just 3.1% of the global total and 4.1% of the global total government bond market. However, over the course of...



Reading the runes of last week’s market bounce Market volatility has been in the air all year and, given the macroeconomic backdrop, this is not at all surprising. A weakening global economy marred by war and labour market-driven supply squeezes, while simultaneously...

Loss of trust Last week provided the evidence for the fragility of capital markets as they grappled with the strain of transitioning from an ultra-low interest rate environment, back to the one we knew before the global financial crisis of 2008. A policy mistake...



Competing policy measures leave markets worried The last two weeks have been sobering for investors world-wide, with all major markets (including bond markets) falling between 5% and 10%. This has come after an encouraging recovery rally over the summer  that was...

The Fed at work and China snubs Putin The consequences of a European war continue to dominate our economy and markets, as it does throughout Western Europe and, to some degree, Asia. Meanwhile, seemingly unaffected by the rest of the world, the US is blazing its own...

The end of eras With great sadness, we pass from the second Elizabethan age. Our Queen was a constant during this period of intensely rapid change. Across the political spectrum, we can acknowledge her ceaseless responsibility to her people. She retained her dignity...

  

Waiting for policy action The summer is nearing its end and with it the return of the more typical English late summer climes. It may feel as if markets have taken a hint with their 5-day downdraft until last Thursday, although most outsiders will look at last week’s...

Delicate equilibrium All eyes were on the world’s central bankers last week, who were guests of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets were particularly eager to hear what Fed chair Jay Powell had to say – hoping that...

Will a new PM be good news for investors? Here at Cambridge, we rarely talk about UK politics in our deliberations on markets. That’s not because we’re not interested. Rather, it is because domestic politics have less of an effect on the broader global assets that we...

Fear of missing out Investors are feeling FOMO: the “fear of missing out” once again. Last week was a continuation of the trend from the start of July – which has seen a significant boost to both bond and equity markets. Curiously, the good feeling among investors...



Markets bet on a perfect landing Bad news filled the airwaves last week. Faltering global growth, higher inflation forecasts and rising interest rates set a dour tone – capped off by a geopolitical crisis in Taiwan. UK investors were struck by the Bank of England’s...

Positive returns amidst negative sentiment For a second consecutive quarter, the US economy shrank in real terms. Yet the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by another 0.75% last Wednesday because the US economy is too strong. We write, in a separate...

Economy weakens but central banks persevere Global investors tend to be quite US-focused, as the world’s largest economy has an outsized impact on trends across the world. Last week though, attention was on the other side of the Atlantic. European economic data caught...